Number One With A Bullet

Let's start with this...



Now allow me to say that I don't give a damn.  As long as the man behind the curtain is giving the Cavs a better chance to break the championship drought, he can meddle all he likes.  Integrity be damned.  So.... Let's just assume everything is on the up and up.  ;-j

Or better yet, in true American fashion, let us completely disregard it and focus only the portion that is of personal interest.  Who do the Cavaliers select with picks one and four?

As I see it the team needs to fill any two of three needs: point guard, true 5 and wing scorer.  Baron Davis is old, Andy and JJ are undersized and, damn, we need to score some points.  Hopefully the trade exception can help to fill the third hole, but I wouldn't hold my breath.  Let's examine the amateur availability.

True Center

All of the highly rated big men (Enes Kanter, Jonas Valanciunas, Bismack Biyombo, Dontas Motiejunas, Jan Vesely) this season are foreign.  Since 2000 exactly 10 foreign players of 6'10" or taller have been taken with a top ten pick.  Of those ten let us excuse a couple (Andrea Bargnani, Danillo Gallinari) because they are primarily perimeter players.  Of the eight remaining, only three (Yao Ming, Pau Gasol, Nene) could be counted as successful on the court.  Let's bear in mind that there is not a lot of wiggle room here.  We are talking about top ten picks, but those who busted did so by any estimation.  Darko Milicic is the most famous of course, but let's not forget about Yi Jianlian.  At least you know his name.  Can you recall Mouhamed Sene (exactly 103 NBA points)?  Or Nikoloz Tskitishvili (2.9 PPG, 1.8 RPG for his career)?  Yeah, me neither.  And I would be remiss if I did not remind you all of our own DeSagana Diop (2.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG).  Now this measure only accounts for those who never attended college in the US, so perhaps I am unfairly penalizing Kanter (just like the NCAA!).  Still when using the #4 (there is no chance one of these guys goes first) overall pick, it might be smart to steer away from a demographic that has produced just three positive returns ever!  It is more difficult to scout these players because there is both less video and an unfamiliar level of competition, so will stray to the historical.

For the sake of this discussion we shall now assume that the Cavs will seek to grab a point guard and a dynamic scorer with their two picks.  It might even be possible to snag a big man with some upside (Trey Thompkins, Jeremy Tyler) at the top of the second round.  Literally every mock draft I have seen has the Cavaliers selecting Kyrie Irving at the top and Derrick Williams going second and, for now, we will table any discussion of which player is "better."  We need only to accept that we need two players.

The smart move is to pick Williams, the charismatic high-flyer, #1 overall to put butts in the seats and points on the board.  No doubt that Irving will be long gone by pick 4, but, unless someone starts buttering their bacon, either Brandon Knight or Kemba Walker will be available.  Irving is clearly the better PG prospect, drawing grand comparisons to Chris Paul, but, again, the Cavs need two exceptional players.  The only way to do this is to pick Derrick Williams #1 and "settle" for point guard 1a with the fourth pick.

I will stand by this.

Cheers.